Emerson Augusto Baptista, Assistant Professor of Asian Demographic Research Institute, published a new paper entitled “Chronic respiratory disease mortality and its associated factors in selected Asian countries: evidence from panel error correction model” on BMC Public Health. Emerson is the first and corresponding author.
Chronic Respiratory Diseases (CRDs) in Asian countries are a growing concern in terms of morbidity and mortality. However, a systematic understanding of the increasing age-adjusted mortality rate of chronic respiratory disease (CRD) and its associated factors is not readily available for many Asian countries. We aimed to determine country-level factors affecting CRD mortality using a panel error correction model.
Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, we estimated the trends and distribution of CRD mortality for selected Asian countries from 2010 to 2017. Furthermore, we evaluated the relationship between CRD mortality and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, average years of schooling, urbanization, and pollutant emission (PM2.5 concentration) using a fixed-effect model. We corrected the estimates for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation through Prais-Winsten adjustment along with robust standard error.
Between 2010 and 2017, approximately 21.4 million people died from chronic respiratory diseases in the countries studied. Age-standardized crude mortality rate from CRDs in the period had minimum and maximum values of 8.19 (Singapore in 2016) and 155.42 (North Korea in 2010) per 100,000 population, respectively. The coefficients corrected for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity based on the final model of our study (Prais-Winsten), showed that all explanatory variables were statistically significant (p < 0.001). The model shows that the 1% increase in GDP per capita results in a 20% increase (0.203) in the CRD mortality rate and that a higher concentration of air pollution is also positively associated with the CRD deaths (0.00869). However, an extra year of schooling reduces the mortality rate by 4.79% (− 0.0479). Further, rate of urbanization is negatively associated with the CRD death rate (− 0.0252).
Our results indicate that both socioeconomic and environmental factors impact CRD mortality rates. Mortality due to CRD increases with rising GDP per capita and decreases with the percentage of the total population residing in urban areas. Further, mortality increases with greater exposure to PM2.5. Also, higher years of schooling mitigate rising CRD mortality rates, showing that education can act as a safety net against CRD mortality. These results are an outcome of sequential adjustments in the final model specification to correct for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.
亚洲人口研究中心Emerson Augusto Baptista在BMC Health上发表文章“Chronic respiratory disease mortality and its associated factors in selected Asian countries: evidence from panel error correction model” （部分亚洲国家的慢性呼吸道疾病死亡率及其相关因素：运用Panel error correction模型
亚洲国家的民众越来越担忧慢性呼吸道疾病（CRD）的发病率和致死率等健康问题。 然而，许多亚洲国家还没有对慢性呼吸道疾病（CRD）死亡率（年龄标化）及其相关因素有比较系统化的了解。本篇文章旨在使用Panel error correction模型确定影响慢性呼吸道疾病死亡率的全国性因素。