Guillaume Marois published a paper entitled “Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model” on Scientific Reports

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Guillaume Marois, Associate Professor of Asian Demographic Research Institute at Shanghai University, published a paper entitled “Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model” on Scientific Reports. Guillaume Marois is the first and corresponding author.

 

Abstract:

The extent of the challenges and opportunities that population ageing presents depends heavily on the population’s health. Hence, for the development of appropriate strategies that enable countries to adopt the emerging demographic and epidemiological realities, information on future health trajectories of elderly population is a natural requirement. This study presents an innovative methodological framework for projecting the health of individuals using a dynamic microsimulation model that considers interactions between sociodemographic characteristics, health, mortality, bio-medical and behavioral risk factors. The model developed, called ATHLOS-Mic, is used to project the health of cohorts born before 1960 for the period 2015–2060 for selected European Countries using SHARE data to illustrate the possible effects of some selected risk factors and education on future health trajectories. Results show that, driven by a better educational attainment, each generation will be healthier than the previous one at same age. Also, we see that, on average, an individual of our base population will live about 18 more years since the start of the projection period, but only 5 years in good health. Finally, we find that a scenario that removes the effect of having a low level of education on individual health has the largest impact on the projected average health, the average number of years lived per person, and the average number of years lived in good health.

 

Full Text: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81092-z

 

 

 

 

亚洲人口研究中心副教授Guillaume Marois近日在Scientific Reports* 发表题为 “Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model (用微观模拟模型预测欧洲的健康老龄化轨迹)”。Guillaume Marois是本文的第一作者和通讯作者,上海大学是第一作者单位。

 

人口老龄化带来的挑战和机遇在很大程度上取决于人口的健康状况。因此,为了制定合适的策略以使世界各国能够适应新出现的人口问题和流行疾病现状,我们需要了解老龄人口在未来的健康发展趋势。研究提出了一个创新的方法框架,用动态微观模拟模型预测个人健康状况,该模型考虑了社会人口学特征,健康,死亡率,生物医学和行为危险因素之间的相互作用等因素。

 

* Scientific Reports是Nature旗下的一本期刊,为 JCR Q1区期刊。

 

全文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81092-z